Filip Forsberg back-to-back hat tricks have him on pace for another 30-goal season, and his career scoring rate has him looking like he could go down as one of the all-time greats in Predators history.
The Nashville Predators’ history isn’t exactly the most storied in all of NHL lore. The franchise hasn’t yet celebrated its 20th anniversary, there are no divisional titles, conference championships or Stanley Cups to speak of and there’s no player in team history to win one of the major individual awards. But that doesn’t mean the team hasn’t had its share of stars over the years.
Going through the list of some of the all-time leading scorers in Predators’ franchise history, you come across the likes of Shea Weber, who was, up until this season, the franchise’s cornerstone player, a three-time Norris Trophy finalist and one of the more revered blueliners of his era. Then there are players such as Ryan Suter and David Legwand, both of whom were fixtures of the team during its slow build to consistent success. There are also those temporary greats, notable players in league history who spent some time in Nashville, such as Paul Kariya or Peter Forsberg, whose stint was all too brief.
But amidst all of the players who have come and gone in Nashville’s history, the franchise has always seemed to be missing the one true offensive star that could help separate them from the rest of the pack. During Kariya’s time in Nashville, he was exceptional, to be sure, but his stay lasted only two seasons. Forsberg’s played all of 22 games in Nashville. And it’s Legwand, who’s known more for his tenacity, that is the franchise’s all-time points leader, and Martin Erat who ranks second all-time. Oddly enough, though, Erat may have been unintentionally responsible for the Predators finally acquiring the first consistently great scorer in franchise history.
There’s no use going over the trade once again, but the deal that sent Erat to the Capitals, a trade that went bust for Washington, landed the Predators Filip Forsberg. At the time, he was an 18-year-old first-round pick who had yet to play a game in the big league, and he wouldn’t really find his way to the NHL full-time until the start of the 2014-15 season. Since then, though, he’s been a revelation for the Predators.
In his rookie campaign, Forsberg finished fourth in Calder Trophy voting thanks to a 26-goal, 63-point season, and he didn’t shrink in his first trip to the post-season. In six games, he managed four goals and six points. The following year, as Forsberg hoped not to be a flash in the pan or hit a sophomore slump, he came out firing and topped his previous career highs by scoring 33 goals and 64 points. And this season, his third full campaign in the league, Forsberg is again on pace to reach the 30-goal plateau and add another 57 points to his career totals. Not to mention he is coming off of back-to-back hat tricks. At that rate, Forsberg would end this season with 90 goals and 190 points in 242 games in his time as a Predator.
On the all-time scoring register, that doesn’t make Forsberg’s scoring ability look like all that much. In fact, he’ll rank behind current Predators such as Craig Smith, Colin Wilson and defenseman Roman Josi. However, Forsberg, 22, has five years remaining on his current deal before he can himself look at heading elsewhere as a free agent, and by that time he may have etched himself into Predators history as one of the top scorers the franchise has ever seen.
Already, Forsberg is among the greatest point producers per game the Predators have seen. Among players to play at least 150 games in Nashville, Forsberg has the third-best goals per game rate at .34, his .38 assists per game are 11th most in franchise history and his .72 points per game is the highest of any active Predator. Only two current Predators outrank Forsberg in either of the statistical categories, and that’s James Neal, who has scored .36 goals per game, and Josi, who has .42 assists per game over his tenure in Nashville. And while Josi is in for the long haul, Neal’s deal is up in two seasons, and it’s not unimaginable that he could be playing the final years of his career elsewhere. Even if that’s not the case, though, it’s hard to imagine his scoring pace isn’t matched or surpassed by Forsberg in the near future.
And when it comes to scoring, conservatively extrapolating Forsberg’s current rates seems to indicate he’ll be one of the Predators’ all-time greats, too.
Let’s say Forsberg plays 70 games a season over the next five years, and continues his current scoring pace. If he has 90 goals and 190 points when this season ends, scoring another .34 goals per game over an additional 350 games would give him another 119 goals for a total of 209 in 634 games. The current leader is Legwand, who scored 210 times during his 956-game Predators tenure. As for points, Forsberg’s .72 points per game rate over the course of the next 350 games would give him 442 for his career, putting him one point back of Shea Weber for third in team history.
The thing is, though, there’s nothing to suggest Forsberg is going to miss 60 games over the next five years. Through the first two campaigns of his career, he didn’t miss a single game and he’s again on pace to play a full 82 games for the Predators. If he were to be an ironman over the final five years of his deal, he’d have 229 goals and 485 points at his current rate. That’d make Forsberg the best goal scorer in franchise history and only Legwand, with 566 points, would be a higher overall scorer. That said, Forsberg would have reached his statistical heights in more than 200 fewer games. In a career that spans as long as Legwand’s did in Nashville, Forsberg would have roughly 324 goals and 691 points.
In considering all of this, it’s worth mentioning again that Forsberg is 22. He still isn’t in the prime of his career and he’s a 30-goal scorer. As the Predators add more offensive weapons around him, it stands to reason that he could start to near 40-plus goal plateau or reach heights even beyond that. And that he’s got another five years to operate makes it hard to fathom he won’t end up as the best goal scorer the franchise has seen and one of the top point-getters in Predators’ history.
When Nashville GM David Poile made the deal to acquire Forsberg, he called the youngster “one of the top rated young forwards in the world.” Not even he could have known, however, that Forsberg would grow into the best offensive weapon the Predators have ever possessed.
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