LOS ANGELES - Ryan Smyth found a simple solution to his offensive drought. He went to the net and got the desired results.
Playing on a line with centre Paul Stastny and right wing Milan Hejduk, Smyth broke open a tie game with a pair of third-period goals and led the Colorado Avalanche to a 5-2 victory over the Los Angeles Kings on Saturday night.
"I got my opportunities and took full advantage of it," said Smyth, who had only one goal in 13 games. "I've been talking about trying to get to the net a little bit more, and it was just a matter of going out and doing it."
T.J. Hensick scored his first NHL goal in his second game. Stastny and Jaroslav Hlinka also scored and Jose Theodore made 17 saves for the Avalanche, who came in with the worst road record in the Western Conference and outshot the Kings 34-19.
Raitis Ivanans and Anze Kopitar scored first-period goals for Los Angeles. The Kings haven't had more than three goals in their last nine games after coming back from four down in the third period against Dallas to win 6-5 in overtime on Nov. 10.
"We had a great first period and it looked like we were going to have a great game, and then the wheels completely fell off. I wish I had an explanation as to why," said Kings coach Marc Crawford, who guided the Avalanche to a Stanley Cup title in 1996.
Colorado captain Joe Sakic didn't play because of a sore groin, ending his streak at 232 games. Avalanche coach Joel Quenneville had no idea how long the 19-year veteran would be sidelined.
"It's tough to say," Quenneville said. "I don't even want to speculate if Monday's an option right now. Joe knows his body pretty well, but we want him to wait as long as it takes until he's back 100 per cent. It's nothing we want to fool around with for an extended period of time."
Kings centre Michael Cammalleri was back in the lineup after sitting out Wednesday's shootout win at San Jose due to a pulled groin. Defenceman Jaroslav Modry also returned after missing a game to be with his ailing father in the Czech Republic.
But goalie Jason LaBarbera sustained a rib injury during a goal-mouth scramble and was replaced by Jean-Sebastien Aubin with 14:40 remaining after stopping 26 of 29 shots. Left wing Alexander Frolov missed his fourth straight game because of a groin injury.
Colorado took a 3-2 lead just 19 seconds into the third period on Smyth's first of the game. Kings rookie defenceman Jack Johnson failed to put a body on Smyth after he got the puck behind the net from Hejduk, and in a flash, the puck was in the net after Smyth's intended centring pass for Stastny banked in off a Kings player.
Smyth added his eighth goal with 8:35 remaining, beating Aubin from short range moments after losing his helmet. Hlinka made it 4-2, converting a rebound with 5:37 left.
"It was a great effort across the board," Quenneville said. "It was a pleasure to see us battle the way we did. The energy level that we had was as good as we've seen all year long, and we showed a relentless pursuit of the puck. The line of Paul Stastny, Ryan Smyth and Hedjie led the whole charge, but we were getting contributions from everyone."
After the Kings took a 2-0 lead, Stastny got Colorado back in the game just 55 seconds before the first intermission. He flipped a bouncing puck over LaBarbera's glove for his 10th goal after Smyth outworked Modry behind the net.
"Obviously, we got behind the 8-ball. Spotting teams the lead and finding a way back into the hockey game is not something we want to do," Smyth said. "But we found a way tonight and fought our way through a little adversity with guys like Joe, Andrew Burnett and Kurt Sauer out."
Hensick tied it at 11:12 of the second period while referee Dan O'Rourke had his hand raised to call a delayed penalty against the Kings. He got a lead pass from Tyler Arnason as he approached the Kings' blue line and left Modry behind before beating LaBarbera with a short wrist shot.
"To get my first goal on a breakaway is pretty special," Hensick said. "The equipment guy got the puck for me, so I'm sure that will go on the mantle somewhere. Getting an opportunity to play in the NHL is something you work for your entire life. I know I had family and friends back home watching, and my parents were able to make the trip last night to San Jose, so it's been a pretty exciting two days."
Notes: Hensick, who turns 22 on Dec. 10, was a third-round draft pick by the Avalanche in 2005 after playing four seasons for Michigan. ... The Avalanche need two more wins for 1,000 as a franchise. ... Colorado has connected on only two of 37 power-play opportunities in eight games, and own the worst percentage on the road (4-for-57).
It's not often stars like Matt Duchene are on the trade block. It will take a king's ransom to pry him from the Avalanche but these teams have a shot at him.
Oh, the possibilities. Matt Duchene is the most fun trade-bait name to pop up in a while.
First off, his skill set tantalizes. He’s got blazing speed, elite hands and can play center or wing. Teams chasing his services have many different ways to slot him into their lineups. Secondly, Duchene isn’t a rental. He’s under contract for two more seasons after this one at a $6-million cap hit. While that means the lowly Colorado Avalanche and GM Joe Sakic have no reason to rush and force a deal by March 1, it does mean Sakic should receive some 10-bell offers. Sakic also might receive pitches from bubble teams or even non-playoff squads, as anyone acquiring Duchene, 26, can make him part of their long-term plans.
Still, chances are the rebuilding teams wouldn’t target Duchene until draft day. This month’s offers should skew heavily toward contenders. Which teams are the best fits for Duchene? Keep in mind the return must be significant.
6. BONUS TEAM: OTTAWA SENATORS
It wouldn’t do the Senators justice to bury them in the honorable mentions category. They deserve a few extra words, as they’ve been linked to Duchene often of late. The problem is Colorado needs good young defensemen more than anything else – and a Duchene trade likely can’t happen unless Ottawa includes prized prospect Thomas Chabot. That’s a borderline non-starter for Ottawa. With no Chabot involved, Colorado would want Cody Ceci, but trading him would be counterproductive for the Sens, as he logs more than 23 minutes a game. They need him too much for the playoff hunt. The Avs could also ask for promising two-way center prospect Colin White, but they’d want much more than just White, and the smarter return for Duchene should start with a defenseman. Duchene is also somewhat of a luxury for Ottawa, who is already solid up the middle and might put Duchene on a wing if it acquired him.
The mutual interest makes sense, as Duchene would bolster Ottawa’s top six no matter where he plays and the Sens have pieces Sakic would covet. But I just don’t see Ottawa coughing up what Colorado wants.
5. CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS
The Chicago Blackhawks need a left winger to play with Jonathan Toews yet again. A quick and dirty way to plug the hole this year might be to grab pending unrestricted free agent Patrick Sharp back from the Dallas Stars. If GM Stan Bowman wants to aim high, though, he could target Duchene. And we can’t underestimate Bowman’s ability to pull off massive deals. He surrendered a first-round pick and Marko Dano as part of the Andrew Ladd acquisition last winter. Bowman gave up a 2018 second rounder plus Philip Danault, who currently centers Montreal’s top line, to snag Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann. The year before, Bowman used first- and second-round picks as part of swaps for Antoine Vermette and Kimmo Timonen.
It’s established that Bowman has no problem giving up future assets for playoff pushes. He knows his team remains in a Cup-contending window. Better yet, Duchene could become part of Chicago’s star core for years to come. Bowman would then have to sort out some serious salary-cap problems in the summer, but c’mon…we all know that never stops him from dreaming big.
What Chicago can offer: The Hawks lack elite prospects, though Alex DeBrincat has almost played his way into that status with OHL Erie this year. He could be part of a Duchene trade. Some goes for blueliner Chad Krys or NHL rookie Nick Schmaltz.
Red flag: Chicago has three Stanley Cups in since 2010. It hasn’t selected in the top 15 of an NHL draft since 2008. The Hawks have also traded away multiple high picks before using them at the draft. It’s no wonder, then, Chicago’s farm system isn’t studded with A+ prospects. The Hawks would be squarely behind the other suitors in terms of what they could offer for Duchene. Bowman has also publicly stated he doesn’t expect to be active approaching the deadline. Choose for yourself whether you believe that, though Chicago’s lack of in-season cap space alone would make a Duchene deal difficult to execute. Some veteran body would have to go Colorado’s way, and Bowman doesn’t want to upset his team chemistry.
4. ANAHEIM DUCKS
The Ducks average the fewest goals of any team in either conference currently holding down a playoff position. Right winger Corey Perry has just nine. The Ducks need an injection of scoring, and GM Bob Murray has made six deadline-day trades over the past two seasons. He knows Perry and Getzlaf are inching deeper into their 30s, slowly closing the franchise’s championship window, and Murray thus doesn’t mind making moves. It helps that Duchene isn’t a short-term asset, too. And Duchene wouldn’t have to play center to help the Ducks. Coach Randy Carlyle could try him on the top line with Getzlaf and Perry, using Rickard Rakell to create nightmare matchups from the third unit.
What Anaheim can offer: Defensemen. So many defensemen. Maybe even two. The Ducks are spoiled at the position, with Cam Fowler, Hampus Lindholm, Sami Vatanen, Josh Manson, Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour leading the way, not to mention 2015 first-rounder Jacob Larsson marinating in the Swedish League. Murray could find himself in an expansion draft bind, too. Veteran Kevin Bieksa’s no-movement clause makes him a must-protect asset, and Murray would never expose Lindholm, Vatanen or Fowler as long as he has them. That could put Josh Manson in a precarious position, forcing Murray to lose him or, most likely, expose a decent forward like Jakob Silfverberg.
Long story short: dealing from their ‘D’ surplus helps the Ducks not just in that it could yield Duchene, but also because it would solve a roster logjam.
Red flag: We know Sakic seeks multiple useful pieces in a Duchene deal, so the return wouldn’t just be a Theodore or Montour. The Avs could easily demand, say, Vatanen along with one of the younger prospects, with a first-round pick to boot. Murray does have many D-men to spare, but surrendering one of his top-four guys for the stretch run would up the pressure on his youngest D-men. Are they ready?
My colleague Ken Campbell said it best in our podcast this week: the Canadiens owe it to their fan base to make a push. They lead the Atlantic, hockey’s weakest division, but have wilted in recent weeks. They don't want to waste goaltender Carey Price’s prime years. And any team forced to shoehorn Paul Byron and Artturi Lehkonen into top-six duty scares no one. The Habs need more high-end talent for their scoring lines.
What Montreal can offer: The negotiation starts and finishes with Mikhail Sergachev and/or Nathan Beaulieu. No way GM Marc Bergevin gets a foothold without dangling his best young blueliners. A steep price? Yes. But the Habs, unlike the Sens with Chabot, are at more of a win-now juncture. That’s what last summer’s Shea Weber acquisition told us. The question is whether the Avs would also ask for hulking winger Michael McCarron in a Duchene package. My guess is yes. And Montreal should meet the price. It’s time to go for glory.
Red flag: Is Montreal even a top-four team in the Eastern Conference? Would you pick the Habs over the Washington Capitals, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets or New York Rangers in a series? I’m obviously playing devil’s advocate here, but the point is acquiring Duchene carries risk, as Montreal has stiff competition and would have to empty its farm system in a Duchene deal. The good news, of course, is that the Habs would naturally become a much stronger contender in the East with Duchene.
2. CAROLINA HURRICANES
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman raised an excellent point: it helps the Hurricanes to acquire players with term because they aren’t big players in the free agent game. The Canes are trending in the right direction, with strong analytics numbers. Sebastian Aho would be a Calder Trophy contender in most years but happens to be up against a fantastic rookie crop. The Canes have Julien Gauthier on the way, too. But as they mature into a pretty competitive club, they could use a boost in veteran scoring, and Duchene would provide just that. He could immediately take over as Carolina’s No. 1 center.
What Carolina can offer: The ’Canes are up there with Anaheim as the best pure hockey fit for a trade from Colorado’s perspective. Carolina boasts an impressive stable of young defensemen. Justin Faulk is untouchable in a Duchene negotiation, as is Noah Hanifin, but Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin should be in play. Neither of them would constitute nearly enough to land Duchene, which is where picks and high-end prospect defensemen Jake Bean and Haydn Fleury come in. Carolina has enough defensive depth to spare a couple in a Duchene package, and GM Ron Francis is swimming in cap space, too.
Red flag: The Hurricanes are in the midst of true rebuild. It’s trending in the right direction, with Carolina four points back of the Philadelphia Flyers for the second Eastern Conference wild-card position with two games in hand. The ’Canes are hardly guaranteed a ticket to the big dance this spring, though, and they aren’t in a rush. That doesn’t mean Duchene is a poor fit. It does mean a Duchene trade could go down at the draft in June instead of in the next few weeks.
1. NASHVILLE PREDATORS
You should’ve seen Duchene during all-star weekend in Nashville last year. He couldn’t stop smiling. As a country music fan and musician, he’s made for that city. Not that such an emotional connection makes him more likely to become a Predator, of course, but it’s nice to think about.
What makes Duchene most likely to become a Predator is that Nashville has the best blend of need and willingness. Mike Fisher shouldn’t be a top-two center on any team calling itself a Stanley Cup contender. That’s not meant to disrespect Fisher. It’s just that he’s 36. He’s still an effective two-way player and would be a wonderful No. 3 center on a powerhouse. Landing Duchene would put Fisher in that spot and give the Preds another dangerous scorer up front, which they desperately need. No Nashville player has more than 17 goals, albeit Filip Forsberg has heated up a lot lately.
GM David Poile is the king of blockbuster trades in the salary-cap era. He pulled Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen and Shea Weber for P.K. Subban in 2016. He’s made winter deals involving first-round picks over the years to land Peter Forsberg, Cody Franson, Paul Gaustad and Fisher. Poile treats every trade deadline like it’s his team’s last chance at a Stanley Cup push, and we thank him for it. The man is entertaining.
What Nashville can offer: Mattias Ekholm’s name has been tossed around in trade rumors this year. After dealing Jones away last season, though, Poile has to be careful not to weaken his depth too much. The more likely scenario: offering a first-rounder and a prospect such as Dante Fabbro. Maybe Kevin Fiala or Vladislav Kamenev, too. We know Poile is fearless.
Red flag: It’s taken the Predators all season just to climb back into a playoff position, and they’re a short losing streak away from slipping into ninth place. The smart money says they hold off their competition, but they’re no lock. At least Duchene isn’t a one-and-done commodity, though. So the threat of a playoff miss shouldn’t spook Poile.
OTHER TEAMS TO WATCH:
Los Angeles Kings, St. Louis Blues, Vancouver Canucks
Claude Julien's off the board as a free agent coach, but there are several other out-of-work bench bosses vying for the job with the Golden Knights. But who should Vegas choose?
The Vegas Golden Knights are coming together quickly, and are just a couple weeks (and an important payment to the NHL) away from even being able to make trades. They have a lot of front office pieces in place except for one notable addition still to be made -- the coach. And given the number of high-profile coaches who have recently become unemployed, the Knight appear to have a decent pool of candidates to draw from.
So here are our picks for who should be the first coach in team history. Turns out only two stand out above the rest.
Golden Knights GM George McPhee said he’s open to looking at all options for Vegas’ first coach, but the sense is he’s leaning towards a more experienced, veteran coach who can come in and instantly establish himself in the dressing room. Hard to think of a coach who brings with him more clout than Hitchcock, who’s two wins away from becoming the third winningest in league history. Were it not for some shaky goaltending, he’d likely be in position to coach for the Stanley Cup this season, but Hitchcock’s bad luck could be the Golden Knights’ good fortune.
Strategically, there’s not a better coach available than Hitchcock, and he has the ability to take a ragtag group assembled through the expansion draft and put them into a place to compete for a playoff spot in their first season. It’s not an easy task, but one made that much easier by nabbing the best coach available on the market. (Jared Clinton)
I know Habs fans will probably groan at this answer, but Therrien would give the Golden Knights instant credibility and years of NHL coaching experience. Look at some of the most successful expansion teams of the past and you'll find an old hand behind the bench: Minnesota and Jacques Lemaire, Florida and Roger Nielsen, St. Louis and Scotty Bowman (who took over midway through the first season from the also-experienced Lynn Patrick), to name a few.
It's not fun and yes, it's kinda boring, but Therrien has been to a Stanley Cup final and gone on numerous playoff runs. His act may have worn thin in Montreal, but Vegas will need a strong personality right off the hop and Therrien can be that guy. I'm not saying he's the long-term solution – ideally Vegas finds their Al Arbour or Fred Shero once the Knights get settled in after a few seasons – but he's a great option to get the ball rolling. (Ryan Kennedy)
It’s pretty simple, really. Ken Hitchcock has worked for three GMs in his NHL coaching career – Bob Clarke, Bob Gainey and Doug Armstrong. It’s important that he have a good relationship with his GM and, guess what? He and George McPhee happen to be pretty good friends. And despite Hitchcock’s pronouncement at the beginning of the season that this would be his last as a coach, he has backed off on that and is believed now to still be considering his options. All of which makes Vegas the perfect landing spot for both him and the Golden Knights. Look at it this way, this team is not going to be tanking off the hop because the talent the NHL is making available will make it impossible to do so. They’re going to get two very good NHL goalies and the team will be stocked with mid-range forwards and defensemen, good players at the NHL level who have character, compete and experience. They may have trouble scoring, but they’ll also be a bugger to play against. Now is that the perfect template for a Ken Hitchcock team or what? It should happen, it must happen and we’re betting heavily that it will happen. (Ken Campbell)
Michel Therrien is my pick. He has lots of recent experience with veteran-laden clubs, having guided the Montreal Canadiens through some decent regular seasons and several playoff series victories. Therrien isn't known for leaning on his youngsters, which is fine – as the Vegas squad will take a few years to stockpile draft picks and line its system with legit young prospects. The expansion draft should give the Golden Knights a bunch of bona fide NHLers, creating the need for a coach to merely keep a veteran squad relevant and prevent it from embarrassing itself in front of an unpredictable fan market. The Ken Hitchcocks and Gerard Gallants of the world have shepherded young teams in recent seasons, and those are the types of coaches the Golden Knights might prefer two or three years from now. (Matt Larkin)
The Panthers are looking to add some scoring punch by the deadline, but they’ve already gotten plenty out of Jonathan Huberdeau in the six games since his return to action.
At points throughout the season, it’s looked like all the promise that surrounded the Florida Panthers entering the campaign was going to go unfulfilled, that the injuries and coaching change and off-ice shuffles were going to turn 2016-17 into a lost season. Florida has been on the outside of the playoff picture looking in more often than not this season, and as recently as last week they sat five points out of a wild-card spot, tied with the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils with 58 points.
One week can change things, though. Especially at this time of year.
The Panthers are as much a part of the post-season race as ever before, and now there’s the matter of the Panthers having games in hand on their side. While a minimal margin, Florida enters the final full week of February with two fewer games played than the Atlantic Division’s third-place squad, the Boston Bruins, while sitting only two points back of the divisional playoff spot. Meanwhile, when it comes to the wild card, the Toronto Maple Leafs hold a one point advantage on the Panthers, but Florida has one game in hand entering play on Monday.
So, with the playoffs well within reach, Florida’s president of hockey operations Dale Tallon told NHL.com that his team is looking to add with the trade market about to get that much more active with the deadline approaching. It makes sense, too, for Florida to get in on the dealing if they can add a few pieces that put them into the post-season and earn them some valuable experience. The Panthers were two wins away from the second round in 2015-16, and this could be the year they take that small step forward on the road to becoming a perennial contender.
It’s entirely possible, however, that the best acquisition the Panthers will have made going into the deadline won’t even cost them an asset in exchange. As a matter of fact, it wasn’t really an acquisition at all.
Jonathan Huberdeau injured himself with mere days remaining until the start of the season, and the injury to the 23-year-old was quite possibly more impactful than anyone could have imagined. The Panthers offense was struggling mightily through the first 51 games of the season without him, producing just 119 goals in 51 games, good for 2.33 per game. The only teams with less prolific attacks were the Devils, Vancouver Canucks, Arizona Coyotes and Colorado Avalanche. That’s four non-playoff teams who have nothing but a prayer of getting into the playoffs.
But things have been different for the Cats since Huberdeau’s return. There was some expectation, of course, that getting Huberdeau back would provide the offense with some sort of boost, but not even the most optimistic of Florida fans would have suggested that the difference in the team’s scoring ability would be so profound once Huberdeau was back in the lineup. It’s a small sample size, to be sure, but in the six games that Huberdeau has seen since his return from injury, the Panthers are averaging more than four goals per game and have mustered a couple of doozies, including six- and seven-goal performances. Oh, and Florida has only lost once in the six games since Huberdeau’s been back.
Of course, that the Panthers are producing at such a rate doesn’t necessarily have to point to Huberdeau being the most effective player on the ice, and it could simply be a nice run of play from a team that was underperforming. Sure doesn’t seem like that’s the case, though. Huberdeau has a point in all but one of the six games he’s played in since his return, and he’s picked up four goals and eight points over that span. Included in his totals are two game-winning goals — the game-winner in his first game back and an overtime winner in a thriller against the San Jose Sharks — and all four of his markers have come at even strength.
Again, while it’s a small sample size, one also can’t help but be impressed by the impact Huberdeau has had on Jaromir Jagr and Aleksander Barkov since returning. The trio formed the Panthers’ top line for much of the 2015-16 campaign and were reunited upon Huberdeau’s return in early February. Huberdeau has contributed one goal and four points at 5-on-5 playing on the line, while Jagr has two goals and five points and Barkov has lit the lamp four times. Seven goals and 13 points at 5-on-5 across six games is rather impressive output.
Huberdeau has managed all of this while having his minutes limited, too. No one outside of the organization likely knows the extent to which the effects of Huberdeau’s Achilles injury is still bothering him, but the busiest evening he’s had since his return was a 17:30 outing in his season debut. Since then, Huberdeau has only eclipsed the 17-minute mark once and twice skated less than 16 minutes. And it’s a wise decision by Panthers coach Tom Rowe to limit Huberdeau even if the injury isn’t plaguing him all that much. The more well-rested Huberdeau is for the playoffs — should the Panthers sneak in — the better.
Surely, Huberdeau’s return and Florida’s subsequent rise has played into Tallon’s interest in adding at the deadline, and he said he wanted to add some extra punch on the power play. The Panthers are still fighting to get into the post-season, and anything that can help Florida get into either a divisional or wild-card spot is worth picking up, because this is a team whose window is just starting to crack open. The Panthers have the space to do so with more than $9 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly, and it would be far from shocking to see Florida reach out and nab a veteran who can find the net with the extra man.
No matter who the Panthers acquire, though, it’s going to be hard for the additions to get much better than that of a healthy Huberdeau.
Any late season surge in Boston won’t be because of a new coach, it’ll be because a good team finally started getting some bounces.
When a team fires a coach mid-season and the guy barely lasts a week on the unemployment block, they’ve probably just made a huge mistake.
Back in 2011, the Capitals made that mistake. They fired Bruce Boudreau after the team hit a rough patch, and he was subsequently hired just two days later by Anaheim. It took two other coaches and three seasons for the team to find themselves another coach of his calibre, a waste of the their best players’s prime years.
Last week, the Boston Bruins made that same mistake firing Claude Julien. He lasted exactly one week on the market before another team scooped him up. The fact it was the division leading Montreal Canadiens makes matters even worse as it points to how clear of an upgrade they thought Julien was over the guy who led them to the top.
Boston’s decision came down to results and expectations. From that standpoint, it’s clear why they did what they did. After making the Cup final in 2012-13 and winning the President’s Trophy in 2013-14, the Bruins missed the playoffs twice and were sure looking like they would make it three with a 26-23-6 record under Julien. Someone had to take the fall and with this being Julien’s 10th season as bench boss, maybe his voice was getting a bit stale.
I’m not sure I buy that though and it all comes down to what the Bruins are doing under the hood this year. The year after the President’s Trophy win, the team took a step back dropping from third in score-and-venue adjusted Corsi to 12th and then dropped to 17th the year after. This year, they’ve shot all the way back up to first, ahead of the perennial kings of this stat, the Kings. Their mark of 56 percent is the ninth best mark of any team since 2007-08. Ahead of them are two Detroit teams, three Chicago teams, and three Los Angeles teams – and also three Stanley Cups. No fired coaches either.
The team made a remarkable year-to-year jump, the results just weren’t there. The team has the lowest shooting and save percentage among those top teams, and that’s led to a dastardly low 46.3 percent goals ratio, a full 10 percent lower than their shot share and six percent lower than the worst of the eight juggernaut teams above them.
While goaltending is a concern, some of that is a result of how terrible their back-up goalies have been. You’d also figure that a world class goalie like Tuukka Rask will get his groove back. The real big issue is on offense where the team ranks 21st in goals per 60 at 5-on-5. While they may have the ninth best shot attempt rate since 2007-08, they’re also posting the sixth worst shooting percentage since 2007-08.
The obvious answer from most pundits is that the Bruins aren’t actually a good team due to their massive shot advantage because a majority of those shots are coming from the outside. It turns out they have a point. Take a look at this heat map from HockeyViz.com of all the shots the Bruins are taking this year to see for yourself. It might be a lot to take in, but basically, red means “hot spots” where the team shoots more than league average, while blue represents “cold spots” where the team is getting fewer chances.
Just as expected, a lot of red on the outside and a huge blue zone right in front of the –– wait, wrong picture. That’s actually the Bruins 2010-11 season where they won the Cup and had the second highest goal scoring rate at 5-on-5. My bad. Here’s this year.
Yep, there we go. A little better than 2010-11, but still, they’re not really getting to the front of the –– wait, that’s not it. That’s actually the Bruins 2012-13 season where they made it to the Cup final and had the ninth highest goal scoring rate at 5-on-5. My bad. Here’s this year.
Hmm, a lot fewer shots overall, but again, their biggest cold spot is right in front of the –– wait, I did it again. That’s actually the 2013-14 season where the Bruins won the President’s Trophy and had the third highest goal scoring rate at 5-on-5. My bad. Okay, here’s 2016-17, for real this time.
Remember that this offense is the 21st rated offence at 5-on-5. If anyone could point out how it differs from any time the Bruins had a top five or 10 offense the past few years, I’m all ears. There is a bit of a deeper contour in front of the net than other seasons, but not by much, and the red zone in front of the slot is a deeper red and much closer to the front of the net. That should all cancel out, and it does. By expected goals for, here’s how every season under Julien ranks.
This year, the Bruins should be having one of the most prolific offenses they’ve had in years, instead, they’re struggling. The idea they’re “not getting to the front of the net” is a bad excuse because it’s clear they either never really have, it’s never really mattered, or there’s a systemic bias in Boston to record fewer shots there. Whatever the case, it doesn’t hold water.
The Bruins offense hasn’t changed much, but the results have and Julien lost his job because of it. Some might say the Bruins Corsi doesn’t tell the whole story here, but even by expected goals they’re the league’s top team, and those teams rarely struggle to convert like this team has. I normally hesitate to use “luck” as a crutch to describe a team with poor results, but it’s hard to point the finger anywhere else.
If you’re still not convinced, here’s another way to look at it. I plotted every player’s personal shooting percentage (at 5-on-5) this season compared to the the three seasons prior. Unsurprisingly, nearly everyone is having a down year.
There’s a fair number of players here who were reliable scorers in the past that suddenly can’t put it in. These 19 players have 86 goals this year, but if they were as efficient as they were before this season, they’d be at 111 collectively. If you look at expected shooting percentage that number drops a little to 104, but their expected shooting percentage is actually higher than it was in the previous three seasons. It’s hard to imagine all these guys suddenly forgot how to score, but that’s the reality if you think these results have nothing to do with luck.
Eventually, things should revert back to normal and they’ll start scoring at their normal rates again. With the way the Bruins control play, that’ll likely mean more wins down the stretch and it may be enough for a playoff spot (we think they’ve got a 70 percent shot at the moment). If they make it, they’re a dark horse team in the East, especially in a weak Atlantic. That is, if they keep playing as well as they did under Julien.
Whatever happens though, any team success will come back to the coaching change as a turning point. Make no mistake though, they likely would’ve turned it around anyways. Any late season surge won’t be because of a new coach, it’ll be because a good team finally started getting some bounces. The Bruins won’t be a good team now because they fired Julien -- they already were one.