"Hopefully soon, so I can wash that blue and white out of my gear."
- New Ducks goalie Vesa Toskala when asked when he'll get his new Anaheim mask.
"Hopefully soon, so I can wash that blue and white out of my gear."
- New Ducks goalie Vesa Toskala when asked when he'll get his new Anaheim mask.
Rookies William Nylander, Auston Matthews, and Nikita Zaitsev.
The Maple Leafs suddenly have as much as $15 million to work with at the trade deadline which they could use to make a big deal; Avalanche stars could stay put.
The rebuilding Toronto Maple Leafs are among this season's most-improved clubs. After finishing at the bottom of the standings last season, the Leafs are jockeying for a post-season berth in the Eastern Conference.
Despite this improvement, the Leafs still have some roster weaknesses to address. Their most-pressing need is a skilled puck-moving defenseman. With the playoffs in sight, perhaps the Leafs could address that need by the trade deadline.
That possibility increased when Sportsnet's Chris Johnston last week reported the Leafs quietly placed injured players Nathan Horton, Joffrey Lupul and Stephane Robidas on long-term injured reserve. The moves give the Leafs flexibility in the form of an additional $15 million in salary-cap space.
With that kind of space, the Leafs have room to pursue a big-name player at the trade deadline. They've been linked in recent weeks to St. Louis Blues defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk. Despite the Blues' recent resurgence, TSN's Darren Dreger claims the 28-year-old Shattenkirk remains in play.
The asking price for Shattenkirk is thought to be at least a first-round pick and a top prospect. While the Leafs have the depth to meet that return, they could be unwilling to do so unless Shattenkirk, who's eligible in July for unrestricted free agency, is willing to sign a long-term extension.
If Shattenkirk proves too costly for the Leafs, more affordable options include Buffalo Sabres defenseman Dmitry Kulikov and New Jersey Devils rearguard Kyle Quincey. If they want additional depth at forward, Johnston suggests Tampa Bay Lightning left winger Brian Boyle, Dallas Stars right winger Patrick Sharp or Arizona Coyotes center Martin Hanzal.
DUCHENE, LANDESKOG COULD STAY PUT IN COLORADO AFTER DEADLINE
The Colorado Avalanche reportedly continue to entertain offers for Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog. While the notion of one or both moving before the March 1 trade deadline provides a much-needed spark to the trade-rumor mill, they could still be with the Avalanche when the deadline passes.
It's not as though there isn't any interest in the pair. For several weeks, the 26-year-old Duchene was linked to the Montreal Canadiens. Reports out of Boston earlier this month suggested the Bruins could make a push for the 24-year-old Landeskog. The Ottawa Sun's Bruce Garrioch reports there's talk the Senators kicked tires on both players.
As always, the issue is the asking price. It's believed the Avs seek a good young defenseman, a first-round pick and a top prospect for either guy.
In a recent mailbag segment, CSNNE.com's Joe Haggerty said the Bruins shouldn't give up a promising young blueliner such as Brandon Carlo or Charlie McAvoy for Landeskog. TSN's Bob McKenzie reports Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has no intention of sacrificing his future. His colleague Pierre LeBrun believes the Sens interest in Duchene is pretty much dead unless the asking price is reduced.
LeBrun suggests the Carolina Hurricanes possess considerable depth in young blueliners and need a scoring center. However, he's not convinced Hurricanes GM Ron Francis will pony up for Duchene. LeBrun suggests Francis try to tempt the Toronto Maple Leafs into parting with William Nylander.
Avalanche GM Joe Sakic apparently isn't under pressure to move Duchene or Landeskog before the deadline. It's expected he'll wait for the off-season, when general managers usually have more salary-cap room and a willingness to deal.
FLAMES COULD LOOK AT GOALIES AGAIN
Prior to the 2016 NHL draft, the Calgary Flames created a stir when it was reported they contacted the Pittsburgh Penguins about goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury. The discussion apparently ended when the Pens asked for the Flames first-round pick (sixth overall). Calgary used that pick to select left winger Matthew Tkachuk.
The Flames eventually acquired Brian Elliott from the St. Louis Blues, but he's failed to play up to expectations as a starting goaltender. With Chad Johnson also struggling of late, Sportsnet's Nick Kypreos reports the Flames could revisit their interest in the 32-year-old Fleury, who's lost his starter's job to rookie Matt Murray.
Earlier this month, Penguins GM Jim Rutherford said he's open to dealing Fleury but prefers retaining him as insurance for the playoffs. Unless Fleury, who carries a modified no-trade clause, asks to be dealt, he could finish the season in Pittsburgh.
The Flames also nearly had a deal in place last June to acquire Ben Bishop from the Tampa Bay Lightning. If they can't pry Fleury out of Pittsburgh, maybe they can once again look into the 30-year-old Bishop's trade status.
Bishop's an unrestricted free agent this summer and isn't expected to be re-signed. If the Lightning put Bishop on the block, they could seek a young defenseman in return. It's doubtful, however, the Flames meet that price unless they get assurances that Bishop will re-sign with them.
Rumor Roundup appears regularly only on thehockeynews.com. Lyle Richardson has been an NHL commentator since 1998 on his website, spectorshockey.net, and is a contributing writer for Eishockey News and The Guardian (P.E.I.).
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Adding big pieces at the deadline isn’t going to be easy thanks to how tight a number of contenders are to the cap. There are some cheap veterans who could make an impact, though.
More than ever, it feels as though this season’s trade deadline is set to be plagued by league parity and the salary cap. For the most part, the teams in contention are the teams who have spent like it, meaning those right in the thick of the playoff picture don’t have all that much room under the cap to make additions in their hunt for the Stanley Cup.
In all likelihood, the tight cap and battles for wild-card spots around the league will result in the number of blockbuster deals we see come March 1 being less than in years prior, and it could very well result in a few teams in contention looking for cheaper additions that can help down the stretch and into the post-season. That can come in the form of young players just about to hit the open market for the first time or, more likely, as veteran players who’ve only months remaining on their current deals with not much left to provide a non-playoff team.
The list of veterans who could be in line to shuffle around the league is plentiful, but landing the Jarome Iginlas or Shane Doans of the league isn’t going to be all that affordable for a number of top contenders. There are several 30-plus players who fit the bill for those teams tight to the cap, though.
Here are five veterans who could be cheap but effective acquisitions at the deadline:
5. Kyle Quincey, New Jersey Devils
He’s not the first name that comes to mind when you think of trade targets at the deadline, but Quincey, 31, could be an intriguing addition to a team’s defensive corps as the post-season approaches. He doesn’t bring with him the flash of someone like, say, Kevin Shattenkirk, who stands to be the top free agent target in the summer, but Quincey has managed four goals and 12 points in 51 games for the Devils while averaging upwards of 18:30 per game.
Quincey has some playoff experience, too. All told, he’s played 54 post-season games and has appeared in the playoffs in each of the past five seasons as a member of the Red Wings. While in Detroit, Quincey was used to middle-pairing minutes in the playoffs, even while playing under coach Mike Babcock. Quincey could be a very useful fifth or sixth defenseman on a top contender without breaking the bank. He’s on a one-year deal that pays $1.25 million.
4. P-A Parenteau, New Jersey Devils
Depth scoring is one of the biggest factors in post-season success, especially against a team that’s good at playing the matchup game. If your top stars are shut down, you need the secondary scorers to step up and make the difference. One target for teams looking to add a boost to their secondary scoring game might need to look no further than the Devils’ P-A Parenteau, 33, who’s earning $1.25 million on a one-year deal.
Parenteau is one of those players who has seemed to be a fixture of trade deadline talk for the past few seasons, but this could actually be the year when a team steps up to take him on. A 20-goal scorer in 2015-16, Parenteau is again on pace to near the 20-goal mark with 13 in 57 games in New Jersey this season. His rate of scoring is all the more impressive when you consider he’s skating bottom-six minutes on a Devils team that doesn’t have all that much offense.
If Parenteau comes in and contributes 5-10 goals before the playoffs, he’s already more than made the acquisition worth it, and he’s likely a lock to contribute a couple of goals in the playoffs.
3. Brian Boyle, Tampa Bay Lightning
Boyle’s an interesting one. The most expensive player on this list, he’s currently in the final season of a three-year, $6 million contract, but he’s the kind of acquisition teams will be after as much for his two-way play as they are for his offensive punch. He’s had some of that this season, too. His 13 goals in 52 games matches his total from the entire 2015-16 season, and he’s already surpassed his point total from the year prior.
The rumor has been that it could cost as much as a first-round pick to pry Boyle, 32, out of Tampa Bay, which apparently isn’t all that frightening a price for some teams given the strength of the draft this year. And while that may seem a hefty price, teams value — and sometimes overvalue — experience. It’s going to be hard to find a player of Boyle’s ilk with more experience, either.
Since the start of the 2011-12 season, Boyle has played 95 playoff games. Only Carl Hagelin has played more, but that Boyle would have been tops in the league over that span and then some if his Lightning had been able to eke out the Game 7 victory against Hagelin’s Penguins in the 2016 Eastern Conference final.
2. Patrick Eaves, Dallas Stars
Versatility, two-way ability and a strong checker. Those are the staples of Eaves’ game. The fact that he has 21 goals this season, though, is going to put a premium on his services if the Stars are willing to part ways with the veteran winger. It’s not easy to find a player who can provide punch on the power play, skate on the penalty kill and switch to either wing at the drop of a hat, and even more difficult to find that player for a mere $1-million cap hit.
There’s going to be some questions about the 32-year-old, however. He has spent the majority of this season skating alongside Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn, and it doesn’t take Einstein-level intelligence to determine that playing on a line with two of the game’s top scorers is going to benefit any winger.
Does Eaves manage to produce even close as well away from Dallas’ dynamic duo, or does his scoring screech to a halt when he’s playing a middle-six role beside second- or third-line talents? Eaves could be a boom or bust addition at the deadline.
1. Radim Vrbata, Arizona Coyotes
Here’s a list of players Vrabta, 35, has produced as much or more than for at least $2 million cheaper: Ryan Johansen, Joe Thornton, Tyler Johnson, Patrick Marleau, Mike Fisher, Justin Williams and you get the point. Vrbata went back to the desert for the third time in his career, and for the third time it was the shot in the arm his game needed.
The goals haven’t been quite as frequent as in the past, but he still has 11 tallies and 40 points in 57 games on a Coyotes with an absolutely anemic offense. Matter of fact, Vrbata has factored in on 30 percent of the goals Arizona has scored this season, which is telling about how well he’s played. He hasn’t just been good for a Coyote, though, he’s been good for any player heading to UFA status. Of all players set to his the open market at season’s end, Vrbata is the fourth-highest scorer, and he’s earning just $1 million this season.
If Vrbata changes locales, the biggest concern has to be whether or not he keeps his scoring up. He succeeded in his first season as a Vancouver Canuck, but he slowed significantly in 2015-16, to the point that some were questioning whether he’d even land a deal for the current campaign. There has to be some worry about playoff scoring, too. In 42 games, he has eight goals and 18 points, which is far from his .60 points per game rate in regular season play.
That said, he might be worth whatever the risk. If a team is looking for high-scoring potential in a cheap veteran winger, Vrbata has to be the top target.
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Carey Price and Nathan Beaulieu. Image by: Getty Images
This week on the podcast:
-What's wrong with the Canadiens? (Hint: a lot)
-The Atlantic Division has become the Titanic Division
-How coaching changes helped the Islanders, Blues, and Bruins
-How many games will Nyquist get for his spear on Spurgeon?
-Was He a Ranger?
[Music: Metz-Headache; Quicksand-Omission]
Patrick Eaves. Image by: Getty Images
Looking at the players available at the trade deadline, there are some who will be worth the asking price, and others who would actually make teams worse.
The craziest hockey day of the year is nearly upon us: deadline day. Rather than give into the wildness, let’s instead get logical and look at the numbers.
There are some eyes rolling in the back of the class, but with so many games and so many teams it’s hard to know every player in the league as intimately as the guys on your own squad. That’s where stats help a lot, especially advanced stats that dig a bit deeper than traditional box scores. When you watch the game, what you notice most is which team is creating chances and dominating the run of play, and over time the best players will generally have the best differentials. It’s not the be-all, end-all, they gotta score on those chances too, but they’re helpful in determining who’s helping and hurting. None of it replaces watching the game, but it sure helps illuminate strengths and weaknesses of players, especially those you haven’t seen much of.
With that in mind, we have you covered. We’ve already got our very own Matt Larkin’s top 30 trade candidates here, and now I’ve added some useful numbers to his list to help suss out the good from the bad.
Age and contract are obvious (and guys with term are in bold) and then I’ve added their per-game production right beside their relative shot rates (5-on-5, score/zone/adjusted) to put a focus on who’s scoring and who’s driving play. Then at the very right is their Game Score for the season (coloured by where they fit on a typical depth chart based on performance) as well as how many wins my model suspects they’re worth based on their last three seasons of Game Score. There are other metrics to be mindful of, but that should give a rough estimate of value.
Here’s the list (with goalies omitted because, well, voodoo) along with some additions from the TSN trade bait list to get to 30 after taking out already traded players and those pesky goalies.
That’s the list, now here’s the fun part. Based on these numbers, here’s which guys teams should target and avoid.
The Big Three: Yeah, Kevin Shattenkirk, Matt Duchene and Gabriel Landeskog are pretty good. If you’re a contending team that can afford the cost they might be enough to get the team over the edge. Shattenkirk is an incredible D-man and he would be a home run. Very few D-men provide more value than he does from the back-end, but he obviously comes with rental risk. The Colorado boys at least come with term, but that makes their asking price higher. My model has soured on them a bit this year and they appear as “second liners” on the chart above, but I think that’s the Colorado stench clouding things. They’re legit top line talents and can change the mix of any team’s top nine.
Patrick Eaves: I’ve had a soft spot for Eaves ever since I did projections for the 2015-16 season using war-on-ice’s WAR metric. Dallas was coming off a playoff miss and the projections had them winning the division that year, which they did. Part of that was really solid forward depth, and Eaves was a big catalyst. He was a guy on the fringe who had legitimate top six upside, and we’re seeing that play out this year. Put him with some stars and watch him go. He’s the second highest goal-scorer this season from the list above. A great complementary piece for a scoring line and you absolutely can’t go wrong at $1 million. He pushes play, too, which is a nice bonus to his scoring touch.
Martin Hanzal: Not many players get respect in the desert, but Hanzal deserves it. He could very well be the missing piece to a contender puzzle as he’s a legit second line center that thrives in a shutdown role and plays a complete 200 foot game. The Coyotes are nearly three shot attempts better at both ends of the ice when he’s on compared to when he’s off. Imagine adding that to a team’s third line? They’d be one of the best third lines in the playoffs and a matchup nightmare. He might cost a lot to acquire and a bidding war might put him on the other list quickly, but he’s a guy who is still worth targeting and should be on everyone’s wish list.
PA Parenteau: Are analytics folk the only people who actually like Parenteau? He gets bounced around the league, he can’t sign a deal longer than one season, he doesn’t get much money, and sometimes he gets waived right after signing. I don’t get it. And now he’s back on the trade block because of these one year commitments. Great secondary scoring, drives possession, very cheap, what’s not to like here?
Undervalued D-men: There’s a few here, and that’s because evaluating defense is very tough. The highest defenseman from Buffalo on this list costs more and is much worse. Cody Franson should be the guy to grab there and he’ll likely cost much less to acquire. He’s fallen off since his days in Toronto, but he’s still a dependable player who suppresses shots at a terrific rate. They may be in pillow soft minutes, but all that means is he’ll crush a sheltered role and a team wouldn’t have to worry about sending him over the boards at 5-on-5 like they do with other bottom-pairing D-men. He’s right handed, too. A very easy pick-up. I think Brendan Smith and Michael Del Zotto also fall in to this camp as they’ve been solid shot rate drivers in the past (though Del Zotto has taken a step back this year). All three are having a down season and it won’t take much to pry them out as a result. They’ll help teams win more than some of the other D-men on the market. Speaking of which…
Overvalued D-men: Let’s just list them all: Johnny Oduya, Roman Polak (who has since been taken off Matt’s list, but I’ll leave here), Kyle Quincey and one more who I referenced above who gets his own blurb below. These three are relics from a bygone era: the shutdown D-man. The only thing they really shut down is any semblance of offense as they fail to get the puck out of their own zone. The market is starting to reflect that as guys like Polak and Quincey come in at the bottom of the list, but then there’s Johnny Oduya at the top and I don’t understand it. Well, I do, he’s got Cup rings and a sparkling defensive reputation, but hockey isn’t a 100 foot game (to his credit his numbers have been a little better this season than usual). Offensive guys get slagged for being one dimensional, but you never see the same comments hurled toward these type of defensemen. There are legit shutdown D-men out there, like Niklas Hjalmarsson and Chris Tanev, but the guys available aren’t that. Not even close. They’re likely going to hurt whichever team acquires them. Mobility on the back-end is vital in today’s NHL and these guys don’t have that skillset.
Especially Dmitry Kulikov: If there’s one player to completely avoid at the deadline, it’s Kulikov. To say he’s been among the league’s worst defensemen this year may sound unfair, but it would probably be accurate, too. He’s been bad. It’s not just this year either, he hasn’t been all that good for the past couple seasons. He’s one of the league’s biggest drags on shots at both ends of the ice and this year his scoring has dried up, too. His Game Score this year is better than just one regular defenseman: Josh Gorges. That’s. It. Over the last three years he’s averaging a 16 point pace and is a net negative six shot attempts relative to his team. At $4 million, any team that acquires him is paying way too much for someone who really only makes them worse, not to mention the cost to acquire him. The Panthers knew that much when they moved him in exchange for the very underrated Mark Pysyk who’s been doing just fine this year. There aren’t too many landmines this year, but he’s the biggest one.
Over-performers: Two names stick out: Thomas Vanek and Brian Boyle. Fine players, sure, but not as good as they’ve been this season. Vanek was just bought out last summer and after years of decline, but he’s had a nice bounce back season with a 65 point pace. Here’s the thing, his personal shooting percentage of 15 percent is his highest since 2013-14 and the same goes for his on-ice shooting percentage. At 33, I have my doubts he’s back to scoring the way he was in his prime and I’d expect some regression. There’s also the red flag on defense where he’s declined from -5.1 relative shot attempts against in 2015 to -6.4 in 2016 and -7.4 this year. Those are brutal numbers, near the bottom of the league. In Brian Boyle’s case, he’s always been a fine third line guy who’s looked much better this year after a shooting percentage increase of his own. The price to acquire him is really high and while he’s obviously useful, don’t expect this year’s numbers to continue.
Expensive Veteran Wingers: Jarome Iginla, Shane Doan, Patrick Sharp – these would’ve topped the trade bait list in years past, but at ages 39, 40 and 35, respectively, that’s not the case anymore. Each of them are still mostly effective, okay players, but with their contracts in mind there’s simply no value paying much for what is now bottom six talent (though, there’s an argument to be made for Sharp as a second liner in the right situation). Is the veteran experience worth the lack of on-ice value? I personally have my doubts. Iginla and Doan are the elders here and while their shot rates may look nice, keep in mind those relative numbers are on basement dwellers; they likely won’t push play much on better teams. Sharp is a better option, but he’s also the most expensive one.
Young Reclamation Projects: There are three kids rumoured to be on the move on TSN’s trade bait list, and I’m happy Matt didn’t have them on his list because they’re just not very good. Anthony Duclair is 21 and was the prize of the Keith Yandle trade and after a big 2015-16, he’s fallen off quickly. Turns out you won’t score on 19 percent of your shots forever. The guy barely takes more than one shot per game and is a ghost on defense. He’s the best one of the three though and may actually be worth the risk for a bounce back. The other two though… not so much. Mikhail Grigorenko was the prize of the Ryan O’Reilly trade and he hasn’t worked out either. Imagine being 6.5 shot attempts worse on a team as bad as the Avs because that’s what Grigorenko is working with. But even he isn’t as bad as Curtis Lazar, who somehow has hype behind him. Somehow. He’s got one point in 32 games this season and is one of the league’s worst possession players at minus-24 net shots per 60. Blame his linemates if you want, because Chris Kelly and Chris Neil are terrible, but even they’re doing better than him. Young reclamation projects are nice gambles on most deadlines, but this time around it’s hard to see as much upside given how these three have played.