Fantasy Pool Look: Fast start or real deal?
Center Kyle Turris of the Phoenix Coyotes is off to a nice start in his rookie season, picking up four points in four games. (Photo by Norm Hall/NHLI via Getty Images)
Darryl Dobbs
2008-10-18 11:50:00
This early in the season there are some odd names scattered across the points leaderboard. These surprise players are surging for various reasons, but there is an easy indicator that will tell you whether or not they will continue to produce: TOI, or time on ice.
If a forward who is getting 11 minutes of ice time per game has six points in four games, one of two things will happen. The most common is he will come down to Earth and post numbers you might expect from someone logging that amount of ice time – probably in the 35- to 55-point range.
Occasionally, however, you will see a coach take notice of the impressive productivity and bump the player’s ice time up. Here is a look at some of the overachievers and the odds they will see more ice in the future.
Aaron Voros, NYR
Currently seeing just more than 11 minutes per game, an amount that won’t increase by much. Still, seven points in seven games is impressive for a PIM guy.
Odds of averaging more than 14 minutes per game: 0%
Michael Nylander, WSH
After missing most of last year, Nylander is being eased into the lineup. Despite seeing just 14:48 per game, he has six points.
Odds of averaging more than 16 minutes per game: 75%
Guillaume Latendresse, MTL
He is seeing a lot of time with Saku Koivu, but three of his five points were against Toronto. He is currently playing 13:59 per contest.
Odds of averaging more than 15 minutes per game: 0%
Marek Svatos, COL
He has two points in three games, while playing an average of just more than 12 minutes. However, he gets this kind of ice time every year, so don’t expect a bump.
Odds of averaging more than 13 minutes per game: 0%
Derick Brassard, CLB
The super rookie is playing just less than 15 minutes per contest, but is already seeing an increase. He’s tied for the scoring lead in Columbus with four points.
Odds of averaging more than 17 minutes per game: 75%
Jakub Voracek, CLB
Another super rookie on the Jackets, Voracek is not even averaging 12 minutes per contest, yet he has three points in four games. His ice time will come.
Odds of averaging more than 15 minutes per game: 75%
Fabian Brunnstrom, DAL
All three of his points came in his NHL debut, but in his first two games his average ice time was just 13:25. The Stars are deep, so it would be tough to expect more.
Odds of averaging more than 14 minutes per game: 10%
Sergei Kostitsyn, MTL
Playing just 14:09 per game, Kostitsyn has four points. The Habs are deep, so this is probably as much as you will see. Long-term, however, this younger Kostitsyn brother will be a first-line stud.
Odds of averaging more than 15 minutes per game: 25%
Kyle Turris, PHX
He has four points in four games despite seeing less than 12 minutes per game. As he acclimates himself to the NHL, his ice time will surely improve.
Odds of averaging more than 15 minutes per game: 75%
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Darryl Dobbs’ Fantasy Pool Look is an in-depth presentation of player trends, injuries and much more as it pertains to rotisserie pool leagues. Get the edge in your league - check out the latest scoop every Tuesday and Saturday throughout the season. Also, get the top 300 roto-player rankings on the 1st of every month in THN’s Fantasy section.
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jamie ireland (Posted 2008-10-20 23:06:54)
Hey Seb,
Have you been watching Latendresse in slow motion? He's still the same clod, the difference is that he's actually playing with someone who can pass the puck. Latendresse equals pylon! As for the two Kostystins they are way over rated just as the other plylon on defence is. That would be Mike Komisarek. Are we so devoid of judgement in Montreal that we actually believe we could defeat the Red Wings.
Let's come back to earth in Montreal! Carey Price is not Marty Brodeur and the aforementioned player's couldn't hold previous Hab's ichons jock straps!
Jamie in Laval
Seb (Posted 2008-10-20 13:47:01)
Sergei Kostitsyn is going to be a top line player very soon, this year or the next. I believe he will actually surpass his brother Andrei in points within the next 2 years. Dobbs...Anybody that has seen Latendresse play in his first 2 seasons know he's for real this year. 16 goals at 19 and another 16 goals at 20, not bad for a kid. Last year he was big, too big and slow...very slow. Power skating during the summer made a huge difference in his skating and if you've seen him play before...it is OBVIOUS he's much faster. Montreal has been looking for a true power forward for years and they have him now. He can actually follow Tanguay and Koivu on the first line so he's there to stay.
scottyc (Posted 2008-10-20 12:08:24)
keith...Nylander will be playing behind backstrom this year and likely splitting time as 2nd line center with Fedorov (if he's not at the point). Without 1st line minutes he'll be hard pressed to keep up the point per game pace. There aren't many teams with 4 point per game players. ovechkin, Semin and Backstrom will grab 80 points before Nylander does.
Eric... Voros will not keep up this production. You probably have him in your pools so you're being optimistic but the point of this is that the players listed will not keep up their pace. If you think Voros is finishing with 100 points you're crazy.
whatsthatsmell (Posted 2008-10-20 08:01:32)
Nylander is for real this year. If he was good enough to be Jagr's set up man, then he is good enough for Ovechkin.
Eric (Posted 2008-10-19 17:30:58)
In your prediction of Aaron Voros, you obviously failed to notice that his first 2 games were on the 4th line and the rest have been on the second line, plus his ATOI each of the last 6 games, he played 16 minutes against detroit, with his lowest total since moving up to play with Dubinsky being a shade under 13 minutes. As long as Renney doesn't screw up the chemistry those two have shown, Voros is defiantly playing 14 minutes a game on average.
dandan (Posted 2008-10-19 12:52:49)
hey darryl this is good stuff since it's not always easy to follow what is going on with other teams young guns specially there icetime. i bleed red, white and blue and can tell you that latendresse is for real this year i can only see him getting more icetime onless gaborik end up in montreal. in wich i see is a strong possibility. thx and keep up the good work
keith zemsky (Posted 2008-10-18 16:10:25)
To list Michael Nylander as an overachiever because he has been producing early this year is an intensely uneducated perception. This is a player who, in his two campaigns as a Ranger before last season (which he lost to injury), averaged 81 points a year. I struggle to see how he can be overachieving by producing points, I would say, rather, that he is merely healthy. With talent at the wings like ovechkin and semin, why shouldn't his assists flourish?
JohnCase (Posted 2008-10-18 15:57:51)
I missed my annual pool because I crashed my car on the way and no one took my advice and took Brassard as their rookie. Makes it twice as frustrating because Brassard(knock on wood) would have made me look like a guru.
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