THN.com Blog: Playoff streak in trouble in Nashville
The Nashville Predators put a scare in the eventual Cup champions before bowing in six games in the first round this season. (Photo by Dave Reginek/NHLI via Getty Images)
Brian Costello
2008-07-27 10:33:35
Barry Trotz must be the best coach in the NHL because he finds a way to get a diminishing Nashville Predators roster into the playoffs, both last season and, according to prognosticators, this coming season.
I’m not a believer. Not at all. In fact, I’m counting on the Predators being the NHL team that falls the most in 2008-09.
The Predators have established themselves as the strongest and most consistent on ice performers of the last four expansion teams, ahead of Minnesota, Atlanta and Columbus. Nashville has four straight playoff berths and an excellent track record of drafting and developing talent.
The Preds had a breakthrough season before the lockout with 91 points in 2003-04. They followed that up with highly impressive seasons of 106 and 110 points. Then the budget was slashed in 2007 and the outlook appeared bleak. Paul Kariya, Peter Forsberg, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell and Tomas Vokoun were moved. That’s five solid pieces gone with no immediate return, just draft picks.
But Nashville surprised the critics in 2007-08, making a late surge and qualifying for the playoffs with 91 points. Hats off to Trotz for spearheading that run.
Looking ahead to next season, many hockey observers – at least most everyone in our office – expect the Predators to be right in the thick of things again, pushing for and making the playoffs.
But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Nashville fall to among the bottom two or three teams in the Western Conference. Here’s why.
The goaltending position is extremely unsettled. They got rid of Vokoun because Chris Mason was supposed to be the heir apparent. Now Mason has been shuffled off to St. Louis because of the strong play of Dan Ellis last season. What if Ellis and his 45 games worth of NHL experience can’t repeat? The backup is Pekka Rinne. The Preds have among the league’s least palatable goaltending tandems going into next season.
With super-crafty Alexander Radulov playing in Russia by all accounts next season, the top line has Jason Arnott, Martin Erat and a job opening – maybe rookie Patric Hornqvist. That does nothing for me from a No. 1 line perspective.
The only other serious scoring threats are J-P Dumont and David Legwand. And Legwand has averaged just 15 goals a year during his eight NHL seasons.
The defense is young, strong and impressive, but the loss of Marek Zidlicky hurts. Shea Weber is a real keeper and Dan Hamhuis, Ryan Suter and Ville Koistinen are multi-dimensional. In the system, Cody Franson and Jonathan Blum are part of the next wave.
But for now, the Predators look like an average team that got worse in the off-season. Several teams that finished behind Nashville made significant additions and are on the upswing, namely Chicago, Edmonton and Phoenix. And I’m putting lots of virtual money on Vancouver and Columbus making the jump over the Preds as well.
So at best I see the Predators facing an uphill battle with Colorado, Los Angeles and St. Louis for 12th in the West.
And maybe 14th or 15th isn’t out of the question at the end of the day.
Brian Costello is The Hockey News’s senior special editions editor and a regular contributor to THN.com. You can read his Top 10 list on Wednesdays and his blog each weekend.
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Doug (Posted 2008-07-30 16:52:02)
@ Iain: if if's and but were candy and nuts we would all have a merry Christmas
Section325L (Posted 2008-07-30 09:16:13)
Why don't you whine about it some more Iain.........Dan Ellis was on fire down the stretch for the Preds. That and a gritty never say die attitide by the team all season got them into the playoffs. Stupid Canuck!
Iain Bowman (Posted 2008-07-30 03:49:02)
Nashville lucked into the playoffs last year only because the Canucks tanked hugely in the final two weeks of the schedule. It had little to do with the Preds abilities....if the nucks had played anywhere near .500, they would have been in and the preds would have been out.
Joe W (Posted 2008-07-29 21:40:51)
@Flyerfan, Montana and the Dakotas have so few people in them, that they have to count the cattle in the feilds to get enough people to count them as a state. theres a lot of nothing in those states, but A place like Portland or Seattle I can see having one.
(I think a lot of the preds organization would like it there) just kidding.
Flyerfan52 (Posted 2008-07-29 20:14:58)
I also don't think NHL belongs in warm weather states but I have to respect what Trotz did when his team had a fire sale. He gathered the remnants and still made the playoffs. Not sure if Nashville will ever take to hockey the way Canada and the Northern States do but, if Nashville moves, it would be a shame not to keep this guy with the team. Just a thought but, could any of the 2 Dakotas, Michigan, Montana or Washington (state) support a team? The NE seaboard sure loves the game.
Greg Gries (Posted 2008-07-29 13:11:53)
When is the last time Mitch Korn did not have his goalies ready to compete?
John R (Posted 2008-07-29 12:40:48)
Patrick, I'm not the John you're looking for but I'll answer the question! 1. City, shouldn't need to do anything, the Franchise should be able to support itself and afford its own private arena. 2. Owner, should be able to afford to spend to the cap if need be for several seasons, even in low fan turnout, so that they can ice a good team, with good players and stay competitive to build that fan support over time. 3. State, well I know Bettmans plan is to build the grassroots of hockey anywhere he goes, even in the desert like Las Vegas but I prefer markets like Minnesota where it actually snows and kids actually play hockey in cold winters, thats what its all about, playing on a pond, outside, not going to an arena in Las Vegas. I don't think you need to try and force a game like hockey in warm climates where it doesn't belong, but I think Nashville is okay, they just need owners willing to spend to win.
Patrick (Posted 2008-07-29 07:03:44)
@John: So what do you think a city /owner / state has to do to "deserve" a NHL franchise? I can't wait for the answer!
Bart Wentink (Posted 2008-07-28 23:29:57)
Brad Bonham: Huh? What?? Joel Otto kicked what in'89?? He and Crisp won the Cup in '89 and what does that have to do with Arnott????
Kenny (Posted 2008-07-28 23:27:29)
Moving teams? Bah? Its like a broken record. I just want to know why all these new teams have such lame logos. Predators, pah, it looks like something that should be on a children's toy. Whatever happened to unique old school logos like the Red Wings, Bruins, Canadiens or even the Flyers have. The logos for these new teams like the Sharks, Preds, Panthers, Blue Jackets, Coyotes are so pathetic. Some of those jerseys would be just plain embarassing to wear, do these athletes want to look like professionals or dolls for 5 year olds?
James Hintz (Posted 2008-07-28 23:12:40)
Susan, you are so RIGHT!!!! I only went to 4 games (I live in Milwaukee) but between those and the 20 or so I watched, almost everytime I saw Zidlicky screw up at least once if not a few times!! I get to watch guys in the AHL and the only time you see a D-man screw up that much is when they're a rookie. Even if he's good on the powerplay, he essentially makes it even strength because they know he won't shoot it.
The only one guy in Milwaukee that could make me miss Zidlicky is Franson but he at least shoots the puck and puts a lot behind it (he does do the Zidlicky thing of missing passes and guys stealing the puck from him but he's young). Suter and Weber should REALLY start becoming some top D guys this year. I really think everyone underestimates how good Rinne is. I think these guys forget that Ellis just barely edged out Rinne for the number 2 slot last year. As long as Ellis doesn't fall apart early in the season Rinne should be able to learn and become a good/great goaltender. I agree with him on the forward spot being a downgrade because with Rads not there you need to find someone with power that can score.
Doug (Posted 2008-07-28 19:58:57)
It is quite funny to hear all the ignorant people(t-murder in particular) talk about the ownership of the team. It is better to keep your mouth shut and look like idiot than open it and prove your an idiot. It must be one of three things-1. Ya'll live in a city that cant bet the Preds 2. You live in a city that can't get a team. or 3.Your 12. Either way these haters just fuel our fire. I really hope it keeps you up at night thinking about hockey in Nashville, TN USA. Other than Detroit, I dont think many NHL teams are safe from being sold and moved. Hey John good luck with your hometown team if you even have one.
John (Posted 2008-07-28 18:27:27)
Nashville doesn't even deserve to have an NHL franchise.
Someone tell me why the team hasn't relocated yet?
Russell (Posted 2008-07-28 17:09:22)
I think a lot of people are under the wrong impression about how things happened with the release of the players. Original owner tells GM to cut salary and it is done. 6 months or so later new (current) owners take control of team. They were not the ones to cut the players. I'm not certain they've cut anyone yet.
Brad Bonham (Posted 2008-07-28 16:49:17)
Radulov... does that translate into "unloyal greedy flake" in Russian? Time to come out of retirement Terry Crisp. You're lining up next to Arnott in the Fall, (and Joel Otto kicked it in '89).
Joe (Posted 2008-07-28 16:31:28)
Do you think an Extra 7. whatever million will ease the finantial burden of the Preds. they also have to Average 14,000 in Attendance all year, or the Agreement is off. At first this Article seems like City council is really helping out, but A Little extra Money is not going to help them out a whole lot. Good on the City of Nashville, but this is only going to delay the inevitable.
Doug (Posted 2008-07-28 16:03:44)
http://www.nashvillecitypaper.com/news.php?viewStory=59594
here is the lease amendment agreement
Joe (Posted 2008-07-28 15:23:50)
Where are your sources Bill? is thiat YOU talking, or do you Actually have evedence that the Preds life has been prolonged.
Anthony (Posted 2008-07-28 15:14:40)
I can't believe you have Colorado as 12th. With all the injuries they faced last season, and they still made the playoffs. Now with a healthy lineup (for who knows how long) and an imminent Sakic return (please oh please come back) they should be better than last year, even without theodore. If your memory doesn't go back far enough, at the end of the 06/07 season Budaj was solid, finishing with 31 wins in only 57 games played (something like 16 wins in the final 20 games).
If he can maintain that form, with a healthy lineup, Colorado will return to the playoffs once again.
t-murder (Posted 2008-07-28 14:46:52)
Nashville has good hockey people in the organization but terrible ownership. The fact that the Preds made the playoffs last year is a testament to Poile and Trotz not the city of Nashville or the teams owners. Nashville should get a real owner who is willing to shell out the cash for a contender. Then we'll see if Nashville is a good enough hockey city.
Susan Davis (Posted 2008-07-28 13:50:48)
I'm sorry, but did you even SEE Zidlicky play? He was horrible! We are well off without him. He had so many missed passes it was like he wasn't even there. He had so many give-aways that you would think he was playing for the other team. He was good when the Preds first got him, but he really slumped off. The Wild can have him!
Roadwarrior (Posted 2008-07-28 11:21:13)
For as many times that Nashville has made the playoffs, for some reason, they still have NOT won a game on the road. That won't take you too far in the playoffs.
Troy (Posted 2008-07-28 11:06:15)
325L...Balsille has the $$ to build many arenas, he'll 1st need the teams to build them for. I have no problems with any of the aforementioned teams staying in their respective cities. If they could find legit local ownership that actually CARE enough about their team to keep them there. Forcing your GM to move arguably your top 5 players because you don't want to pay them what they are worth is really, really sad from an ownership perspective. If they don't find someone legit soon to pay the bills the end will be inevitable in Nash, its simple logistics. Bill...could you please give us a link to your comment about Nash getting a sweet deal from their city?? I've been away for a while and haven't heard anything about this...
D4 Power (Posted 2008-07-28 10:53:40)
St. Patrick, obviously you have nothing better to do.
Jim Reinecke (Posted 2008-07-28 10:19:15)
Don't buy into the doom and gloom, "sky is falling" nonsense about the future of the franchise in Music City, Predator fans. Way back in 1983 it was supposedly a done deal that the Blues were leaving St. Louis for Saskatoon. Well, that was a quarter of a century ago and the Blues are alive (if not well) right here in St. Louis and the folks in Saskatoon are still rooting for the Western League Blades. The Predators-Blues rivalry has the potential to become as passionate as the Blues and Blackhawks or the Blues and Red Wings. This team should stay in Nashville. Poile and Trotz have done superb jobs considering some of the instability that's happened in the upper echelons of this franchise since its' inception.
St. Patrick (Posted 2008-07-28 09:46:19)
'Lawer'... turn on your spell check, or better yet... have one of your many Legal Assistants type your messages going forward.
Richard Jenkins (Posted 2008-07-28 09:06:18)
Doug, S-T-A-N-L-E-Y Cup
Section325L (Posted 2008-07-28 08:30:41)
You get used to it after a while. People said we wouldnt be that good last year either, but look what happened. Alot of it is sour grapes over Hamilton. If Jim Balsille has all of that money to throw around........why doesnt he just go ahead and build an arena. The Canadian Press should go after teams like Phoenix, the Islanders or Boston a little more and give the Nashville hate a rest for awhile. It's bozos talking smack in their columns up in Toronto and Vancouver (most of whom probably never put on a pair of skates in their life........(except for idolizing Nancy Kerrigan)........fueling what seems to be an ongoing resentment towards Nashville. Throw in the fact that their teams suck, have sellout crowds and dont make the playoffs.....and we scrape by with a minimum salary and make the playoffs. Go Preds!
Patrick (Posted 2008-07-28 04:24:13)
Must be hard for the Nashville fans to hear the same crap again and again about moving.
The funny thing is that a lot of people say that there is no hockey tradition in areas like Nashville, Florida, Atlanta, ... But it's not possible to let something like hockey dedication grow when you move the teams after 10 years only because they haven't made as much profit as expected? I think it will be great for the whole State if the first Tennessee native will play for the Predators.
Hemsky83 (Posted 2008-07-28 02:28:58)
Doug buddy even Toronto has a better chance than Nashville to win the cup first. Although personally i can't see either happening! Give up the dream it's over. Your team will likely end up in Canada and in much less than 15 years
Doug (Posted 2008-07-27 23:45:12)
I see the Preds staying in Nashville for the next 15 years. Which is ironic seeing the Stanly cup has not be in Canada for the last 15 years. Who do you think will win the cup first? The Preds or any of the Canadian teams.
willhead (Posted 2008-07-27 23:21:50)
I have a hard time counting them out to young and enthusiastic with that coach good coaching counts for more than your giving it credit for.
BILL (Posted 2008-07-27 23:18:47)
NOT MOVING, THEY GOT A SWEET DEAL FROM CITY OF NASH, THEY WONT MAKE A LOT OF MONEY BUT THEY WILL SURVIVE, SORRY CANADA AND KEN CAMPBELL, PREDS WILL FINISH 8 0R 9 IN THE WEST
Dave The Rave (Posted 2008-07-27 22:36:26)
Brian, sorry but you've really missed the mark on this one. Did you not see the Preds Vs Wings series, where Nashville hung in with Detroit for six games? Not the work of an 'average' team, Brian. Barry Trotz is a brilliant coach, bringing the Predators back into the playoffs year after year. He somehow makes his talent work harder and more effectively, even as each so-called 'star' moves on. Yes, they will miss Radulov. Yes, it will be a challenge in '08/09 with the Oilers and Hawks significantly better, and the Coyotes are improving, but then the Wild and the Avs are trending down. The Canucks and Jackets finishing in front of Nashville? Fuggiddabouddit.
Brian Kemp (Posted 2008-07-27 22:29:46)
Probably not as familiar as you are, A Lawyer, but what does a minority owner whose stake will almost certainly be bought out by local ownership have to do with moving? The Commisioner of the NHL has said, and acted in accordance with the statement, that he doesn't want to see any of the teams move. Jim Balsilie had an agreement to buy the team. That got scrapped when it became public that he wanted to move the team. The Pens were going to move forever, and yet, they're still in Pittsburgh. None of the teams are going to move anytime soon. Not Mashville, Not the Panthers, nor any of the other teams that are connected to rumors every month or so, not so long as local owners can be found. Certainly not because a, I repeat, MINORITY owner has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy (learn to spellcheck, it has a t between the p and c, Lawyer), and is facing criminal charges. They aren't moving. If people want to talk about the on-ice problems the Preds will have due to the Radulov problem, or if Ellis can't keep up with last years success (like Mason), fine, but lay off the "they'll be gone next year" garbage. It's an old bit, and it's getting stale. I'm not even a Preds fan, so I can't imagine how annoying it must be to constantly read crap from goofs in Hamilton or wherever just salivating thinking of the Preds maybe moving there. The only towns that will be getting new NHL teams will be getting NEW NHL teams, ala expansion.
George S (Posted 2008-07-27 20:36:38)
Thanks for the motivation -- this kind of bad press is what keeps us coming back and what helps us to keep defying the odds...
HawkeyePred (Posted 2008-07-27 20:09:31)
"Nashville has been screwed by its cheap ownership as has ruined any chance of a cup run for a long time"
"Cheap ownership". Let's look at the facts-signed all our RFA's and Koistinen in arbritration is not a team with "cheap" ownership. The team has great local owners and has a great relationship with the city and state. I guess the prerequisite for screeining for factual based posts was missed.
wildoil (Posted 2008-07-27 19:48:29)
trotz likely is the best coach in the league.that said,this time there just isnt enough talent.im thinking ninth or tenth
A Lawer (Posted 2008-07-27 19:04:41)
Are you Familiar with Chapter 11 Bankrupcy Brian?
Brian Kemp (Posted 2008-07-27 18:51:14)
Stop with the "Nashville will move" stuff. It's an old bit, and I don't think it will happen anytime soon.
Nick Eman (Posted 2008-07-27 18:49:34)
The top line last season was Arnott-Dumont-opening, usually Radulov in the second half of the season, not Arnott-Erat-opening.
In my opinion, Trotz is overrated. Four playoff rounds with Nashville, not even close to winning one...brushed aside in 5 games last year by San Jose last year, even with Forsberg.
Nashville still had pretty good players last season, that is why they made the playoffs even with all the departures (and Forsberg does not count as a departure, he was barely there), not because of the coaching.
This year, Zidlicky is already gone, if Radulov is gone too, I think they miss the playoffs for sure. They no longer have the depth to sustain significant losses, especially without Sullivan.
In my opinion all the NHL did was prolong misery in Nashville, as they are dying a slow death.
Nate (Posted 2008-07-27 18:06:11)
Nashville has been screwed by its cheap ownership as has ruined any chance of a cup run for a long time
Joe W (Posted 2008-07-27 16:07:31)
You gotta feel kind of bad for Nashville. the team won't be around much longer, and in the time that it is, they won't be very good. Sad, Sad state of affairs.
Brian Kemp (Posted 2008-07-27 15:27:48)
They could go either way. It really all comes down to Ellis, and whether or not he was a flash in the pan. My money is on them making it in, but I really wouldn't be suprised to see them miss out.
John (Posted 2008-07-27 12:22:27)
Good article Mr. Eyebrows, but I think Nashville may surprise again! No playoffs, but not the basement, thats Columbus territory.
ted coolman (Posted 2008-07-27 12:19:44)
good observation I agree I doubt Trotz will get through to the playoffs with this squad
Doug (Posted 2008-07-27 12:10:40)
"the loss of Marek Zidlicky hurts." LOL. Please post the highlight reel that will make the Preds wish they kept Zidlicky.
Chris (Posted 2008-07-27 11:01:47)
Is this any way for the Predators to spend their (likely) last season in Nashville?
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