The Hockey News: Jason Kay's blog: THN.com Blog: Fanning the Flames of predictions

THN.com Blog: Fanning the Flames of predictions

Can Jarome Iginla help lead Calgary into the playoffs again in 2008-09? (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Jason Kay
2008-07-19 10:09:38

The Hockey News editorial group was sitting in our boardroom the other day, convening one of our loudest, most spirited and truly fascinating meetings of the year.

The topic? Predictions for the upcoming NHL season.

The process is laborious but, internally anyway, compelling. We pore over teams’ depth charts, the moves they’ve made during the off-season, consider factors such as coaching changes, organic growth and schedule implications, then we engage in a free-for-all.

These prognostications, which you’ll find later this August in our Yearbook, are the ultimate source of lightning strikes for our audience. Nothing rankles a die-hard more than telling him the club he lives and dies with isn’t going to make the playoffs. It’s certain to trigger poisonous hate mail.

Really, our order of selection is guesswork, but we like to consider it educated guesswork. And we realize, because it has our brand stamp of approval, many readers take the guesses very seriously.

The most contentious argument we had about this year’s order of finish concerned the Calgary Flames. After squeaking into the playoffs last season, are they vulnerable to being usurped and finishing out of the top eight in the West?

Some of the questions that were raised include:

• Their defense: is it overrated?

• Jarome Iginla: He’s unquestionably one of the pre-eminent players in the NHL, but can he carry a forward group that appears to lack depth?

• Miikka Kiprusoff: which one will show up? And if it’s the very good one, at what point in the season will that happen?

Related Links

• Mike Keenan: has the game passed him by? Will he have the players’ ears in Year 2 of his tenure?

• With so many improving and strong teams in the West, can Calgary hold off the challengers?

And finally, what to make of Todd Bertuzzi? What impact will he have, positively or negatively, on the Flames’ fortunes.

From my perspective, the Bertuzzi signing was worth the risk. Still just 33, he’s not the player he once was, but was still effective at times with the Ducks last season – he scored at nearly a 50-point pace and was plus-8 – and is an upgrade over the departed Owen Nolan, the player he ostensibly replaces.

Why did Anaheim buy him out? It’s all about the cap hit. If the Ducks could have retained him at the $1.95 million Calgary is paying, they would have.

As for his impact in the dressing room, his teammates in both Anaheim and Detroit have vouched for his good citizenry. While he may never shake the legacy he created for himself when he attacked Steve Moore, the “moody” reputation that once dogged him appears to have evaporated.

So what does this all mean for the Flames in 2008-09? Will they make the playoffs? Now that would be telling, wouldn’t it?

Jason Kay is the editor in chief of The Hockey News and a regular contributor to THN.com. His blog normally appears every weekend.

For more great profiles, news and views from the world of hockey, Subscribe to The Hockey News magazine.

COMMENTS (39)

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dave anderson Posted
(2009-04-30 06:56:58)

OOPS ... My mistake in 2004 the flames were in 6th place with 94 points 3 points ahead of 8th. The oilers in 2006 did finish in 8th with 95 points. Both these teams eliminated Detroit who won the presidents trophy both of those years.

dave anderson Posted
(2009-04-30 06:56:39)

It may be hard to predict where the flames will finish this 08/09 season they will finish in the play offs. and that is where this team could exel as the play offs are more like pre lock out hockey where you want to have a tough, gritty, defensive minded team that can score goals. huselius is no loss he was a primadonna who only played if the mood struck him, and dissapeared in though games Bertuzzi will cover his goals with heart. Cammalleri will cover off Tangay with as much heart. Glencross will compliment Lombardie's speed as he will be able to keep up. With Iggy, Bert, Phaneuf, and conroy I believe they have the leadership to bring out the best in the rest of the team. They will score 10+ more goals and give up 10+ less goal this year and will be in the top 4 in the confrence. They are much improved over last year, and should win more of the close games. They will compete in any play-off series, against any team. Wether or not they win who knows. the last time either the Flames or Oilers were in the Stanly cup Final they were 8th place teams, that no one expected to go as far as they did.

Mikeeh Posted
(2009-04-30 06:44:38)

This season is going to depend on two things. 1. Kipprusoff having a 'better than the average' season than he had last year 2. The team has put in the effort and drive to succeed on a consistent basis. Kipper had an off year, and as Sutter put it: 'He can't take October and November to get in shape.' It's not like he was bad or anything.. I would give him a rating of 'good enough.' Calgary needs him to steal more than just a handful of games for them. They need him to bail them out when they decide it's nap time(which happens frequently). Their best seasons reflect this ('04,'06). As for the effort. Last year, Keenan stated on a couple of occasions, he was downright mystified by this team. One game they could be skating, hitting, playing with the emotion needed to win hockey games.. The next, they seem bored, like they could coast to a victory. When Calgary has displayed the desire to win, they are excellent, and have the potential to succeed. I found their first round series to be one of the best of playoffs.. It had everything you could want from a series: Great saves, big hits, timely goals, speed, and plenty of offense. I like the players Sutter has obtained, mainly because they are not old players who are clearly fading. They are young(er) and faster, and will bring the energy the older players either lack, or are unwilling to display anymore. I am excited to see these guys compete for positions on the top lines.. Will they put up career numbers ? Will they bust? Who knows ? It's just nice to see guys work for things. Did I see someone suggest the Oilers were a shoo in for the NW? I am by no means an Oiler hater.. But come on.. I believe they will make the playoffs, and heck, they could easily contend for tops in the NW. But a shoo in they are not. The Flames certainly aren't either. No one's a sure bet for the title.. It will be as unperdictable as it always is. Here's hoping for a rejuvenated Battle of Alberta

Hale Posted
(2009-04-30 06:43:00)

No depth: Flames top line HAS a top center (30 goal scorer each of last 2 years) in Langkow, top power forward in Iginla (40-50 goals) and new comer Cammalleri will be able to replace Huselius and his 25 goals (and his lazy work ethic). look for young scoring talent to replace Tangauy and his jaw dropping 18 goals, in the form of speedy/skilled glencross or possibly highly anticipated prospect backlund, or any of the young scoring talent on calgary waiting for an oppurtunity. Lombardi will finally have the chance to play more then 10 minutes a night, and should be able to get more then last season (but for arguments sake, lets say he at least gets more then conroy when he was on the second line). Bertuzzi IF he doesn't fit in calgary will still be more offensive then Nolan and should be able to but up the same 16 goal output if he misses 15 games with injury. Conroy (good shutdown center) will replace yelle with more offense, and the rest of the 3rd-4th lines are made up of the hardest competing and most successful of Bourque, Primue, Nystrom, Moss, Roy, Prust, Ryder, Boyd, Lundmark or Greentree, with gritty players like Smith and Godard being replaced by Roy and Van der Gulik.

Hale Posted
(2009-04-30 06:43:00)

Kipper: team as it stands now is faster, has more players that play with a high compete level (see tangauy and huselius for opposite to that) and a similar d-combo (familiarity) with the only switch being offensively gifted and defensively sound giordano back from russia with love to replace useless erikson. Add to that kipper posting better numbers after the all star break (.916, 2 shutouts in final 27 starts), look for him to be more accustomed to the keenan system. combining all those facts, i see a better nightly effort from kipper combined with less opposition oppurtunities which logically will result in better results then last year.

Sean Posted
(2009-04-30 06:39:50)

You've lost me at "Canucks are better". However, that untruth does not take away from the fact this is not going to be the Flames' year.

P.T. Phillips Posted
(2009-04-30 06:38:50)

Sorry Flames fans! Not this year. The Canucks are better....a lot better even without Mats. When they sign him, and if they don't suffer last years injuries, it will be over in the west. Ok the Flames might make the playoffs, but it will be 4 and out.

Brian Kemp Posted
(2009-04-30 06:37:52)

Look, Paul, asking is pretty lame. I'm not in the NHL, I'm a pretty lousy skater. The thing is, I've never claimed to be better than Regehr. I did, however, say that Regehr is merely a "good" defenseman, being a one way player and all. Stopping Thornton and Marleau, and Campbell for that matter, really isn't that big of a feat, and isn't really true in any case, because the Flames were out in the 1st round, and if memory serves, the Sharks lost to Dallas, not Calgary. I think Regehr is a good 2nd pair defenseman, depending on the team. Good, not great. There are probably 30 defensemen I'd take over Regehr, with another 10 or so I'd think about, and probably 10 or so that I think will develop into more complete defensemen than Regehr. Which would put him at a number 2 D-man. Personally, I think the 1st pair should be able to not only shut down, but contribute offensively. Which is why I say he's 2nd pair guy. Good, not great.

Brian Kemp Posted
(2009-04-30 06:37:52)

Just thought I'd put some facts out there. Joe Thornton put up 7 points in 7 games against the Flames. Patrick Marleau put up 6 points in 7 games against the Flames. Brian Campbell put up 3 points in the series. So Regehr shut down Campbell, apparently (odd, since defensemen usually check forwards), but couldn't stop historic post-season underachievers from averaging a point a game? As I said, good, not great. Good hitter, good defensively, adds very little offensively. A one way player.

steve Posted
(2009-04-30 06:37:52)

Easy Dave, just reminding you that Edmontonians captain and co-captain the Flames. ( not that I forget about Gator )..... That, in itself should help you out, and may place you guys 8th or 9th in the west.

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