THN.com Blog: Clarifying the draft lottery details
Sarnia Sting's Steven Stamkos is the projected No. 1 pick in the 2008 NHL Entry Draft (Photo by Mark Wilson)
Brian Costello
2008-04-06 10:11:37
We’re all use to the expression: Don’t believe everything you hear on TV or read in the newspaper. That has never been more accurate than with reports regarding the NHL draft lottery.
It happens every year about this time. Tons of media outlets get the NHL release providing details about the NHL draft drawing (the league uses the word drawing because lottery is too much of a gambling term).
After digesting the information, the media outlet reports the last-place Tampa Bay Lightning have a 25 percent chance of getting the first pick in the draft.
That’s absolutely not true. It’s almost double that – a 48.2 percent chance. I’ll attempt to explain why.
The NHL release, which is completely accurate, but a little bit deceptive, lists the chances the 14 non-playoff teams have of winning the draft lottery. It ranges from 25 percent for the 30th place team (Tampa Bay) to 18.8 percent for the 29th place team (Los Angeles), all the way down to 0.5 percent for the 17th place team (Carolina Hurricanes).
So how does Tampa Bay get bumped from 25 percent to 48.2? It’s because of the fact teams winning the draft lottery can only move up four spots in the order of non-playoff teams. That means the percent chance of the sixth-worst to the 14th-worst teams winning the lottery get moved to the 30th-place team.
When the lottery is held Monday night at 8 p.m. on television, the Lightning hope either themselves or the teams ranked sixth worst to 14th-worst win the lottery. That gives them the right to select first overall at the June 21 draft in Ottawa.
One other misconception: Once the lottery has been held to determine the first overall pick, there’s no more lottery drawings of teams based on those percentages. The sequence of draft selection automatically goes to reverse order of regular season standings.
Here’s each non-playoff team’s percent chance of winning the April 7 lottery.
30th-place team (Tampa Bay) 25% (48.2% chance of getting first pick overall.)
29th-place team (L.A.) 18.8%
28th-place team (Atlanta) 14.2%
27th-place team (St. Louis) 10.7%
26th-place team (N.Y. Islanders) 8.1%
25th-place team (Columbus) 6.2%
24th-place team 4.7% (Toronto)
23rd-place team (Phoenix) 3.6%
22nd-place team (Florida) 2.7%
21st-place team (Vancouver) 2.1%
20th-place team (Chicago) 1.5%
19th-place team (Edmonton - belongs to Anaheim) 1.1%
18th-place team (Buffalo) 0.8%
17th-place team (Carolina) 0.5%
Brian Costello is The Hockey News’s senior special editions editor and a regular contributor to THN.com. You can read his Top 10 list on Wednesdays and his blog each weekend.
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Maxime (Posted 2008-04-07 12:19:14)
As long as the PCC Tortorella (Player's Confidence Crusher) is behind the TB bench, things are going to go down the drain for them. Lecavalier is starting to talk about signing elsewhere...only a matter of time until Marty wants out too...Besides, Trade Luongo to TB, under JT's orders, and even he will post 4.64 GAA records...
Brian Costello (Posted 2008-04-07 08:45:18)
Thanks for the added information about the playoffs teams, Shane. You're right, I didn't want to go into all that. This was strictly about the non-playoff teams and today's lottery. We'll let the playoff teams worry about the big prize first.
It'll be interesting to see the draft lottery on television for the first time ever (other than that post-lockout lottery). Probably a lot of verbal buildup, a 10-second lottery drawing, then a lot of discussion. Looking forward to it.
SoftGoal (Posted 2008-04-07 05:24:09)
Tampa is the better team? Since when? They've been pretty awful all year. They've had no goaltending to speak of. Even with the addition of Smith, they still don't have any defense. I dont think they are being "rewarded" for anything other than an awful season. That's just sour grapes from a Leaf's fan who knows he doesn't have a shot at Stamkos. I'm not a Tampa fan by the way either, by any means.
David (Posted 2008-04-06 21:17:26)
Some of you guys have waaaaayyyyyyy too much time on your hands.
Les Gallagher (Posted 2008-04-06 18:56:28)
Thomas:
You seem to have a chip on your shoulder that is roughly the same size as that empty orb you claim to be a head. Not sure where you came up with the fact that Canadians 'stick up their noses at sunbelt hockey'.... but I can assure you that everyone I know avidly follows the game in all its markets - and enjoys stellar performances by all its players. ( especially including Vinny and Marty in TB ) Hamilton, Ontario Canada had a parade for Dave Andreychuk after the Bolts cup win, and renamed a local arena after him.
Just because most Northerners might root for a local team, doesn't mean we don't appreciate your corner of the world's contribution. I suspect its actually just You we don't like. Did some Canuck spill beer on you at a game, and then tell you what a 'hoser' you are ?
Thomas (Posted 2008-04-06 17:41:09)
Anyone that claims the Lightning tanked to get a better shot at Stamkos clearly didn't watch any Lightning hockey (that covers most of Canada, where people stick their noses up at Sunbelt hockey that succeeds more than their own beloved teams) the last quarter of the season. Just another tired whine from the Great White North, pissy because another of their "chosen" prospects looks likely to be playing down south.
Shane (Posted 2008-04-06 15:15:21)
Hi Brian. Good article, but there's a small misconception in it, as well. You said at the end that "the sequence of draft selection automatically goes to reverse order of regular season standings", which isn't exactly true.
The order depends on the outcome of the playoffs. The Cup winner automatically gets the 30th pick. The loser in the Final gets the 29th. The loser of the Semi-Final receive the 27th and 28th picks, the lower pick going to the team that finished higher in the standings. For teams that lose in the first two rounds, it gets a little foggier. The next highest picks go to any division winners that didn't make the 3rd round. After that, the remaining picks are given to teams according to the standings.
Complicated, but I guess that might be the reason to not go into detail about it.
John Gallant (Posted 2008-04-06 15:00:23)
It really sucks that I as a Leaf fan had to hope the Leafs lose instead of winning. The draft lottery makes no sense cause it rewards team that don't try to win. Look at Tampa, at the deadline they were close to Toronto but the Leafs didn't tank and now they get shafted in the draft, but Tampa is the better team.I think all non playoff teams should have to draw out of a hat for their draft placement. Something is wrong when teams get rewarded for trying to lose.
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